Bryan Moore, nonpartisan staff for the Senate Ways & Means Committee, gave a budget presentation this morning to the Senate Early Learning and K-12 Education Committee. Part of the presentation was a a side-by-side comparison of how the solution of the 2010 budget shortfall could affect budgets down the road.

The calculations:
- If the $2.6 billion shortfall is addressed the way the Governor’s current budget (Book One) calls for and nothing else changes, the state could face a $2.8 billion shortfall next biennium.

- If the state backfills the budget with $1.6 billion federal money and no new, the budget shortfall next biennium could grow to $4.1 billion.

- If new revenue is used but no federal money, the state would have an estimated ending fund balance of $100 million in 2011-2013.

- Finally, if federal money and new taxes are used, the ending fund balance next biennium would be about $300 million.

As soon as that chart is available online, I’ll post it here. One important note is that each calculation comes with a different set of circumstances, so it’s not exactly apples to apples. But: This is the first calculation I’ve seen that illustrates how the method for plugging the budget hole has an effect over time.

Tags: Budget, economy, federal money, taxes

“I know I have been called Dr. Doom, but I think today the name is not deserved,” he opened.

The good news: “In the two months that we have had collections since the November forecast … the collection is plus $51.8 million, which means we are coming in above forecast.” Which means the state is collecting more money in revenues than they expected in the past two months — that’s a first since the recession hit.

That means: The November economic forecast may have been too low. We won’t know for sure until next month, when the next forecast comes out.

He said he sent that message out Friday evening but he didn’t find it in the newspaper, “so I’m telling you now.”

Tags: economy, Raha

Those are the words of the state’s chief economic forecaster Dr. Arun Raha. Dr. Raha made the comment this morning during his quarterly revenue report. He was referring to how he feels about the state’s economy today, compared to his last forecast report in June.

Raha’s report said the state expects to take in $231 million less over the next two years than was forecast back in June. Bottom line: lawmakers will need to cut between $500 million and $1 billion from the supplemental budget when they return to Olympia in January.

Watch the entire revenue forecast:

Tags: Economic and Revenue Forecast, economy, Revenue forecast

TVW will broadcast Washington’s quarterly revenue forecast live today at 10 a.m. This is the quarterly update for lawmakers and the governor on how much the state expects to receive in tax collections over the next few months. At his last quarterly forecast in June, the state’s chief economist, Dr. Arun Raha, said the economy was no longer in a freefall but state tax collections were still below target.

Dr. Raha’s economic revenue preview in early September indicated the recession was over, but consumers were still clinging pretty closely to their wallets.   Find out what he reports today live at 10 a.m. on TVW.

For more insight into the forecast, don’t miss Inside Olympia, tonight at 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Host Austin Jenkins will be joined by State Representatives Kelli Linville and Gary Alexander and Governor Gregoire’s Budget Director Victor Moore.

Tags: economy, Inside Olympia, Revenue forecast

The state’s Employment Security Department released its latest unemployment numbers today for the month of August.  The rate increased to 9.2 percent from July’s revised rate of 8.9 percent.

Washington lost an estimated 8,000 non-agricultural jobs in August. Industries with the largest declines were in professional and business services (2,500 jobs), retail trade (2,400 jobs), and education and health services (1,800 jobs).  More than 319,000 Washington residents were unemployed and looking for work in July.

Employment Security Department Commissioner Karen Lee used today’s announcement to issue a call to the federal government to extend unemployment benefits. “The recession may be coming to an end, but thousands of our unemployed workers will run out of unemployment benefits before the job market begins to recover,” said Lee.  “We need Congress to authorize another extension for unemployment benefits.”

Tags: economy, unemployment, unemployment benefits

Karen Lee and Dr. Arun Raha — the experts in employment and economic issues in Washington state — sat down with Austin Jenkins for tonight’s edition of Inside Olympia.

Here’s a bit of what they had to say, courtesy of TVW’s Mike Bay, who took notes:

- Raha, the state’s chief economic forecaster, said state revenues will lag behind recovery. He doesn’t expect fiscal 2011 revenues to match fiscal 2008’s.

- Lee, who runs the state’s Employment Security Department, said she expects “a long and difficult road for us to get out of this recession.” She cautioned that employment growth would lag the economic recovery. Raha agreed.

- Lee said the biggest challenge facing the ESD and workers is that the post-recovery economy will look a lot different, the old jobs won’t come back, and it will be critical for blue-collar workers to learn totally new skills. She noted you don’t have to be on unemployment to take advantage of ESD’s retraining opportunities.

All that and much, much more on tonight’s Inside Olympia. I’ll post here as soon as it’s available online. Or watch it on TVW at 7 and 10 p.m.

Tags: Arun Raha, economy, Inside Olympia, Karen Lee, unemployment

Van Jones, who is testifying in the Senate Environment, Water and Energy Committee now, said he was happy to be in Washington, a state that’s leading the way on “green” issues.

Jones is the founder and president of Green for All, a national organization that works to put low-income people to work on green jobs.

“Literally everything that is good for the environment is a job,” he said. “Solar panels don’t install themselves.”

Jones says that in a green economy, “the math is different. You don’t just count what you spend, you count what you save.”

“You are in a unique situation very rare in American history. This is one of those moments, like the civil war, like the New Deal, like the 60s — civil rights and women’s rights — literally in that era, when our grandkids are going to study what you did,” he said.

“This assembly will be studied. Now, the question is, are we going to do something truly transformative? Are we going to turn this breakdown into a breakthrough?”

He said the way to do that is to use green jobs as a springboard into a new economy.

Tags: economy, Environment, Van Jones

The Biz Buzz at The News Tribune says Gregoire is pledging to help those Russell employees who will be out of work soon. Russell announced earlier this week that they would cut 20 percent of their 2,100-person workforce.

Gregoire said in a statement: “It is frustrating that the world financial crisis continues to take a toll on Washington business, resulting in job losses for these skilled professionals. Our state’s Employment Security Department is working around the clock to help affected workers file for unemployment benefits, and more importantly, find new, well-paying jobs.”

And today: Boeing announced it will cut 10,000 more jobs. He said in a conference call that the jobs will be cut through “attrition, retirements and reductions.” Read more here.

Tags: Budget, economy, Governor, layoffs

Yesterday, Microsoft announced its first major layoffs in the software company’s history. KUOW reported the hit to the economy is even greater than it sounds: Each Microsoft job supports, on average, three other local jobs.

But something CEO Steve Ballmer said relates to state government budget discussions: Microsoft, he said, is making cuts because they don’t see the economic downturn as a recession, they think the economy is resetting to a lower level of consumer spending.

It’s not just semantics: The difference is at the heart of the public budget-related disagreements between Republicans and Democrats here.

Republicans say state spending grew to an unsustainable level and should be reset to a lower level.

Democrats say we’re in a recession, the state’s economy will bounce back, and with that will come increased revenues from sales and property tax.

And that’s why Democrats have been open to using federal stimulus money to patch the $6 billion-and-growing budget hole, whereas Republicans say they don’t: One group thinks they’re building a bridge, the other thinks they’re lengthening the plank.

Tags: Budget, Democrats, economy, Republicans

Here’s the info on Gregoire’s package. And here’s the press release.

Also, here again is the full list of projects.

There’s a hearing at 8 a.m. on the bills that I’ll be watching (on TVW, of course). That gives us all 12.3 hours to study up on these.

Tags: Budget, economy, Governor, Washington Jobs Now