Archive for economy

Could $231 million in additional revenue break the budget stalemate?

By | June 18, 2013 | 0 Comments

Budget writers got good news today in the form of a revised revenue forecast that shows Washington state will collect an extra $231 million dollars in revenue over the next two years.

Republican budget writer Sen. Andy Hill said that number should be enough to “break one of the final logjams” in budget negotiations.

Legislators have been locked in a stalemate over the budget, and a partial government shutdown could occur next month if they can’t come to an agreement.

Hill said the uptick in revenue — combined with expected savings — is enough to close the budget deficit, put $1 billion into public schools, cut tuition and protect the state’s social services.

Democratic budget writer Rep. Ross Hunter said the additional revenue “closes the gap a little bit” and he expects budget negotiations to end soon.

“We’re lucky it’s up rather than down,” Hunter said.

Not everyone is as optimistic. House Majority Leader Pat Sullivan said in a press release that it “doesn’t solve all our budget problems,” and won’t be enough to fully fund education as mandated by the McCleary decision.

“We’ve been prevented from taking even small steps toward closing outdated tax exemptions and redirecting resources toward schools….so, while today’s forecast may get us closer to a go-home budget, we can’t pretend we’ve solved the long-term problem,” Sullivan said.

The state government can expect to collect $33.7 billion dollars in tax revenue in the next two-year budget cycle that begins July 1, which is $121 million more than previously expected. The state will also collect an extra $110 million dollars in the current budget cycle.

Watch the meeting of the Economic Revenue and Forecast Council below.

The Senate Majority Coalition also called a press conference about the numbers. You can watch it here.

Categories: Budget, economy

House Democrats release $10 billion transportation plan

By | February 20, 2013 | 0 Comments

House Democrats unveiled a $10 billion transportation package on Wednesday that would be fueled by an increase in the gasoline tax and an increase on car tab fees.

The proposal would increase the state gas tax by 10 cents (2 cents a year over five years) and make car tab rates equal to 0.7 percent of the vehicle’s value. The proposal would also add a $25 fee on sales of bicycles over $500.

“Gas tax is about the only revenue stream you have right now,” Rep. Judy Clibborn (D-Mercer Island) said during a press conference Wednesday. “If we don’t have an investment for the jobs and economic vitality I think at some point there is a cost to not doing the gas tax.”

Washington’s gas tax currently ranks the ninth-highest in the nation. The proposal would eventually raise it to 47.5 cents per gallon.

The package identifies new or continued projects and targeted investments into the state’s transportation system, including improvements to State Route 167, funding for the Interstate 5 Columbia River crossing and the state ferry system.

House Republicans, who have been wary of any new tax proposals, were quick to criticize the new plan.

“House Republicans understand there are maintenance demands and new projects needed in the future,” Rep. Ed Orcutt (R-Kalama) said in a news release. “But any debate on transportation must begin with reforms, not tax increases on struggling workers and families, and not new project lists to entice votes in the Legislature.”

Gov. Jay Inslee released a statement saying transportation is “vital to the environmental and economic health” of the state.

“We can’t afford to not take action and this is a job I expect the Legislature to accomplish. I’ll be working with legislators on both sides of the aisle to craft a package that they can send to my desk for approval,” Inslee said.

Categories: economy, tax, transportation

Universal background checks, Inslee’s jobs plan and sex trafficking on ‘Leg Review’

By | February 14, 2013 | 0 Comments

On Wednesday’s “Legislative Review,” we have highlights from a debate in the House Judiciary committee over gun control. The most controversial measure would expand universal background checks to include private sales. We also cover Gov. Jay Inslee‘s press conference in which he announced a $120 million package of proposals to spur job growth around the state.

Last year, the Legislature passed a bill aimed at reducing the sex trafficking of minors. The bill, which was signed into law by former Gov. Chris Gregoire, would have required online escort sites like Backpage to verify the age of the girls depicted in ads. But Backpage sued, and the state ultimately stopped defending the law in court. On Wednesday, Sen. Jeanne Kohl-Welles introduced a bill that would repeal the previous law, while also imposing a $5,000 fine on people who use the Internet to arrange the sex trafficking of a minor.

Inslee unveils plan to spur job creation

By | February 13, 2013 | 0 Comments

Gov. Jay Inslee

Gov. Jay Inslee on Wednesday unveiled a $120 million package of proposals to spur job growth around the state.

The plan includes tax breaks for new high tech companies, funding for aerospace training programs and new oversight ensuring the success of  STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) programs. The plan also includes a $50 million investment in clean energy programs.

Inslee also said he expects 10,000 new health care jobs through Medicaid expansion.

He characterized the plan as a “first step” in a broader jobs package. The $120 million price tag does not include funding for transportation projects, he said.

The state’s unemployment rate dropped  to 7.8 percent last month, but the  Employment Security Department has said recent drops in unemployment may be tied to unemployed job seekers who have stopped looking for work.

When asked how many jobs he hoped the plan would create, Inslee did not offer a specific number.

“More than we have today and enough to justify the investment and enough that it would be inexcusable not to adopt these common sense measures,” he said.

Republican leaders who met with the governor earlier to review the plan said they were open to many of the proposals, but questioned the timing.

“I think we are a little behind schedule. If he is going to run out a 75-part plan, I’d like to see it soon,” said House Minority Leader Richard DeBolt (R-Chehalis). “It’s one thing to go out and say you are going to change the world and do something different, but if you miss your timelines that doesn’t work for anybody.”

Republican Senate Caucus Leader Mark Schoesler (R-Ritzville) said they were trying to find common ground with Inslee’s proposals instead of just “throwing rocks.”

“I think we are all very interested in some of the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) programs,” he said. “The problem is for our committee chairmen, we are extremely close to cutoff so if they don’t have budget implications they are going to be hard-pressed for time.”

Republicans have also called Inslee’s tax incentive proposals for high tech companies unfair, claiming he is “picking winners and losers.”

The governor defended the tax breaks on Wednesday, saying the plan identifies sectors where there is a potential for significant industrial growth.

“We want to target the companies that can offer innovative ways to do business,” he said.

TVW taped Inslee’s press conference. Watch it here.

Categories: economy

Bill would create sub-minimum ‘training wage’

By | January 29, 2013 | 0 Comments

Lawmakers are considering legislation that would create a new “training wage” lower than the state minimum wage for employers with less than 50 workers.

House Bill 1150 would allow some employers to pay 10 percent of their employees a wage set at 75 percent of the state minimum wage or the federal minimum wage, whichever is greater. It would apply to the employee’s first 680 hours. The federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour.

The bill’s sponsor, Rep. Cary Condotta (R-East Wenatchee), told the House Committee on Labor and Workforce the program would help get teens back into the workforce and off the street.

“I believe it is reasonable. I want a solution to this problem because it has gotten very serious,” Condotta said.

Grant County Prosecuting Attorney Angus Lee agreed, telling committee members the program would help solve the gang problems he sees everyday in his community.

“It benefits people who need a chance,” he said. “I look at it as somebody who cares about my community. This is a bill about saving lives.”

Opponents of the bill say the law would hurt working families who depend on the state’s minimum wage to get by.

“These working families are barely hanging on. I’ve heard of training wheels and training pants but I’ve never heard of a training wage,” said Pamela Crone, a lobbyist with Legal Voice.

Teresa Mosqueda with the Washington State Labor Council called the proposal a “poverty creation bill.”

“This is about all workers and this is taking money off the kitchen table,” she said.

Erin Shannon with the Washington Policy Center told lawmakers the state has one of the highest teen unemployment rates in the country at 28 percent. Shannon said employers need an economic incentive to take a gamble on young workers.

Those feelings were echoed by Pam Pellegrino, owner of Pellegrino’s Italian Kitchen in Olympia.

“When we go to hire to fill a position, at this point we don’t look for teenagers. We can’t invest the time at the minimum wage to train them,” she said.

The committee took no action on the bill Tuesday.

Categories: economy

Bill would repeal state’s Family Leave Act

By | January 28, 2013 | 0 Comments

Opponents of a bill that would repeal Washington’s Family and Medical Leave Insurance Act told lawmakers the state has a moral responsibility to keep the law on the books during a Senate Commerce and Labor Committee hearing Monday.

The 2007 act, which gives new parents paid leave of up to $250 a week for five weeks, has yet to be implemented due to lack of funding associated with the state’s economic downturn in recent years.

“It should never be a matter a luck that a parent can take time with their new child,” said Marilyn Watkins with the Economic Opportunity Institute. “We, as a state, have no greater moral responsibility than to move forward and fund this program.”

Sen. John Braun (R-Centralia), who is sponsoring Senate Bill 5159, argued that the current law is a liability and will never be funded.

“We should stop fooling around with something we don’t ever plan to properly fund and take it off the books,” Braun said.

The legislature delayed funding the program twice – in 2009 and 2011 – and former Gov. Chris Gregoire did not include it in her final budget before leaving office.

The bill  has wide support in the new Senate Majority Coalition, including its two Democrats, Senate Majority Leader Rodney Tom (D-Medina) and Sen. Tim Sheldon (D-Potlach).

Meanwhile, Sen. Karen Keiser (D- Kent) has introduced her own bill which would fund an expanded version of the original act.

Keiser’s proposal would extend the leave time to 12 weeks and pay two-thirds of a worker’s pay, up to $1,000 a week. It would be funded through a .01 percent payroll tax on employees and employers. The program would start paying benefits in 2015.

“At a time when middle-class working families are struggling, it makes no sense to cut this benefit,” Keiser said.

Keiser’s proposal is similar to legislation passed in California and New Jersey.

Next month will mark the 20th anniversary of the  Federal Family Medical Leave Act, which provides up to 12 weeks of unpaid family leave.

The committee took no action on the bill Monday.

Categories: economy, Public Policy

GOP leaders respond to Inslee’s inaugural speech

By | January 16, 2013 | 0 Comments

Senate and House Republican leaders outlined a number of concerns with parts of new Gov. Jay Inslee’s inaugural address during a press conference Wednesday afternoon.

Rep. Richard Debolt (R-Chehalis)

House Republican Leader Richard Debolt (R-Chehalis) said he was disappointed that Inslee was picking winners and losers by supporting tax breaks for programs delivering clean energy.

“State government shouldn’t decide who is successful and who is not. We have to do what we can to help all businesses,” Debolt said.

Debolt said he was also surprised the governor mentioned his support for the Reproductive Parity Act, which would require insurance companies to cover abortions if they also cover live births.

“It was funny that he would take a day of unification and try to make it a politically dividing event,” DeBolt said. “Social issues are not as important as it is getting people back to work again. That should be the focus of our governor.”

Senate Republican Leader Mark Schoesler (R-Ritzville) said the governor’s speech lacked detail, especially concerning gun control.

“The governor hasn’t given us any specifics on gun safety. We all agree it’s important, but there were no details prior and none today in the speech,” Schoesler said.

All the Republican leaders praised Inslee for the making jobs his top priority and said they plan to help Inslee keep his campaign pledge to not raise taxes.

“We have to have those jobs to get people off public assistance,” Rep. Dan Kristiansen (R-Snohomish) said.

Rep. Kevin Parker (R-Spokane) gave a videotaped official Republican perspective prior to the news conference.

Parker focused on funding education and balancing the budget without introducing new taxes.

 

Washington’s unemployment rate drops below 8 percent for the first time since 2009

By | December 19, 2012 | 0 Comments

For the first time in nearly four years, Washington’s unemployment rate has dropped below 8 percent, according to figures released Wednesday by the state’s Employment Security Department.

The state’s jobless rate was 7.8 percent in November, down from 8.2 percent in October. The employment department said that’s the largest month-to-month drop the state has seen since 1977.

Gov. Chris Gregoire called the unemployment rate “welcome news.”

“We are clearly heading in the right direction as we slowly emerge from the Great Recession but we cannot rest until every Washingtonian who wants a job has one,” Gregoire said in a statement.

An estimated 270,000 people in Washington were unemployed and looking for work in November.

The industry with the biggest job gains was retail trade, which added 2,500 jobs last month. The construction industry came in second with 1,400 jobs, followed by the leisure and hospitality industry with 1,200 jobs.

Washington state is ‘marginally worse’ in latest economic update, economist says

By | November 1, 2012 | 0 Comments

A quarterly economic snapshot released today shows that Washington state is “marginally worse” compared to the last quarterly report in September, said Stephen Lerch, executive director of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

Lerch said personal income and GDP is growing slower than expected in Washington. He’s also concerned about issues outside of the state, such as the slowdown in Europe and the coming “fiscal cliff” that must be addressed by Congress before the end of the year.

On the bright side, consumer confidence is at the highest level since Oct. 2007. Housing is also doing well — home prices have gone up for four months in row in Seattle. Nationally, prices have been on the rise for the last three months.

Revenue tax collections are coming in $37 million higher than expected, but Lerch attributed that to a “timing issue” and said he expects it to be back on track for the next quarterly revenue forecast on Nov. 14. The previous revenue forecast showed the state can expect to collect about $30.5 billion in revenue in the current two-year budget cycle.

The full economic review is available here. TVW video of the meeting is available online here.

Categories: Budget, economy

Revenue forecast up $29 million for current two-year budget cycle

By | September 19, 2012 | 0 Comments

Stephen Lerch

Washington economists forecast an increase in state revenue in the current budget cycle, as well as the two that follow.

The state can expect to collect about $30.5 billion in the current two-year budget cycle, which is $29 million more than June’s forecast, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council announced today in its quarterly forecast. The 2011-2013 biennium ends in July 2013.

The council’s executive director, Stephen Lerch, said there’s been positive growth in housing and auto sales. On the downside, exports are declining and job growth has been “very very slow,” Lerch said.

Consumers are paying down big chunks of debt, but that means they aren’t going out and making new purchases — which is something to “watch for,” given the state’s reliance on sales tax, Lerch said.

Liquor sales have jumped widely since stores were privatized in June. In May, liquor stores saw a 27 percent spike in sales as restaurants and consumers stocked up. Sales dropped steeply in June, then rebounded in July. Lerch said he’s raised the forecast on revenue from liquor, but it’s “hard to say where the trend is going on liquor sales.”

Budget director Stan Marshburn said the state is still expecting a $500 million shortfall in the current biennium. “This forecast changes it by $50 million, so the problem remains about the same,” he said.

As for 2013-2015, economists are forecasting revenue of about $32.6 billion, which is $23 million more than expected.

For the first time, economists also looked at the 2015-2017 biennium and expect the state will be able to collect $35.5 billion — an 8.8 percent increase.

Watch the full meeting below:

(more…)

Categories: economy

Unemployment rate up to 8.6 percent, but construction jobs holding strong

By | September 19, 2012 | 0 Comments

Washington’s unemployment rate rose to 8.6 percent in August, up from 8.5 percent in July, the state Employment Security Department said today. The state saw a net loss of about 1,100 jobs.

The good news is that construction jobs are on the rise — the industry added 1,900 jobs in August, the most of any sector.

“This is consistent with what we’re seeing in home construction,” said chief labor economist Joe Elling. Seattle in particular has seen “really good growth” of multi-family units, Elling said, and the construction of single-family homes is up 19 percent across the state.

Still, numbers remain far below what they were at the peak in 2007, when Washington had about 208,000 construction jobs. Today, the construction industry employs about 140,000 workers.  “We have a long ways to go to get construction back to a more healthy level,” Elling said.

The state saw “unusually large losses” in the hospitality and leisure sector, which lost 2,300 jobs in August. Retail and wholesalers also saw a big drop. Elling said retail typically sees a boost in August, but that didn’t occur this time. He cautioned against reading too much into the month-to-month numbers.

The rate remains lower than a year ago. In August 2011, unemployment was at 9.2 percent.

More economic news is coming today.

At 2:30 p.m., the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will release the quarterly revenue forecast. If trends hold from an economic update released earlier this month, the state may be bringing in more revenue than expected.

The meeting will be aired live on TVW, and we’ll also have updates here on the blog.

Categories: economy

Revenue up $22 million more than expected in latest economic update

By | September 6, 2012 | 0 Comments

The Economic Review and Forecast Council released an update on the state’s economy today, providing a preview to the quarterly revenue report that will come out later this month.

The news was cautiously optimistic: Revenue is about $22 million higher than expected since the last forecast in June.

Growth has been a “bit stronger” than expected — the state has added 10,300 jobs in the last two months, which is 3,500 better than economists had predicted. Still, uncertainty remains “very high,” interim director Stephen Lerch said.

On the downside, rising rents in Seattle are driving up inflation faster than the national average. Rents in Seattle have risen 3.9 percent over the last year, compared to 2.2 percent for the rest of the nation.

The council also formally voted to hire Lerch to be the new director of the council at today’s meeting, a move that was announced earlier this week.

Full video of the meeting below:

(more…)

Categories: economy

Stephen Lerch becomes permanent chief economist and forecaster

By | August 31, 2012 | 0 Comments

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council said Friday they’ll make Stephen Lerch the permanent executive director, replacing Arun Raha. Lerch has been serving as the interim director since Raha left for the private sector.

Stephen Lerch

As the state’s chief economist and forecaster, Lerch will be responsible for predicting how much revenue money the state will bring in. The governor and state Legislature use the quarterly forecasts as a blueprint for writing the budget.

The council launched a national search for a new director after Raha resigned in January. At the time, the council estimated the process could take six or seven months.

In a press release, council chair Rep. Ed Orcutt said Lerch “was the top pick out of several highly qualified candidates from around the country and around the world.”

Lerch holds a PhD in economics from John Hopkins University. He was the research director for the Washington State Investment Board before coming to the council, where he has twice served as the interim director during candidate searches.

The council said it will vote for Lerch at the next economic review meeting on Sept. 6th. Read the full announcement.

Categories: economy

State’s revenue forecast shows little change

By | June 21, 2012 | 0 Comments

Legislative changes adopted this year are expected to add a modest $156 million to the state’s coffers, according to the latest economic forecast report released Wednesday.

New tax laws and fund transfers are expected to increase revenue by about $172 million through June 2013. That number was reduced by about $16 million because of weak economic conditions — leaving a net gain of about $156 million.

The report noted that there’s lots of outside risks at play that could affect revenue — the debt crisis in Europe, for example, and uncertainty in oil-producing countries. Read the full report by the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council here.

Gov. Chris Gregoire said she welcomed the news after a series of downward projections.

“The economy is slowly recovering, but is not yet stabilized. Our priority has been and will continue to be to put people back to work and get the economy on its feet,” Gregoire said.

But council chair Rep. Ed Orcutt, R-Kalama, said the small improvement was mostly a result of the Legislature moving money out of dedicated accounts, rather than job creation.

“We’ve kind of flatlined. We’re not any worse off than the previous revenue forecast, but we’re not in better shape either,” Orcutt said.

Orcutt and Democratic Rep. Ross Hunter, who also sits on the council, talked more about the significance of the revenue forecast on this week’s edition of The Impact. Watch it below:

Categories: economy

State’s unemployment rate up from previous month, but people optimistic

By | June 13, 2012 | 0 Comments

The state’s unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent in May, up from 8.2 percent in April, the state Employment Security Department said today.

But there’s good news too: The state added nearly 12,000 jobs — and more people are optimistic about finding work.

Anneliese Vance-Sherman, an economist for the department, said more unemployed people are jumping back into the job market, which could be the reason for the small spike in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate takes into account the number of unemployed people looking for work in the past four weeks.

“In this case, the higher unemployment rate could be a sign that people are feeling more optimistic about their chances of finding a job,” said Vance-Sherman.

Categories: economy, unemployment

Tax revenue collections on track with expectations

By | May 11, 2012 | 0 Comments

Tax collections in the state are coming in as expected, according to a monthly economic report released today.

Over the last three months, the state collected about $9.6 million more in tax revenue than estimated by the Economic Revenue and Forecast Council. That’s out of about $3 billion in collections, marking a mere 0.3 percent difference than what was predicted.

Nationwide, job growth over the last two months has been slower than expected. Yet at the same time, more people are buying cars and houses, and personal incomes are rising — which sends “mixed signals” about the state of the U.S. economy.

In Washington state, the economic picture is also “mixed.” Employment figures had been slowly growing over the last few months, but the current level is still slightly lower than expected. And although houses have been selling, the prices have been weak.

From the report:

“The risks to a continued recovery in Washington are still high. While oil and gasoline prices have receded somewhat, a European financial crisis remains a real possibility. … We are suffering from fiscal drag from state and local government budget cuts and a construction sector which has stopped declining but is not yet adding to growth.”

Looking ahead, the beginning of 2013 could bring a “severe fiscal contraction” when the Bush tax cuts expire and extended unemployment benefits end, it warned.

Categories: Budget, economy
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Vote on renewal of Export-Import Bank watched closely by businesses

By | May 9, 2012 | 0 Comments

The U.S. House voted Wednesday to extend the Export-Import Bank’s authority for three more years — a moved watched closely here in Washington, one of the most trade-dependent states in the nation.

The bank’s charter was set to expire May 31st. It provides financing and insurance for American companies that sell goods overseas, protecting them against losses in case an international customer doesn’t pay up — which is exactly what happened about to one manufacturing firm in Fife about five years ago.

Pexco is a plastics manufacturer that makes road bumps and other traffic safety equipment in a 110,000-square foot warehouse in Fife. Peter Speer, the VP of sales, said that before the company started using the Ex-Im Bank, they shipped a container full of traffic equipment to Turkey on good faith.

The customer in Turkey never paid, and Pexco never got their product back.

“We still haven’t recovered in terms of establishing a market there, but we’re working on that now,” Speer said. “Once we do that, we’ll have the Export-Import Bank from preventing that kind of financial loss in the future.”

The Ex-Im Bank has insured about $300,000 in sales for Pexco, which distributes its products to 25 countries worldwide. Speer said without that federal guarantee, his company would be less likely to take on new international customers.

“We wouldn’t be able to compete with China or Vietnam or India,” he said. “They may not have a better product, but they are willing to take credit risks.”

Critics of the Ex-Im Bank in Congress have said that the federal program amounts to corporate welfare, and point to the bank’s biggest beneficiary: Boeing. The bank supported about $32 billion in exports last year, with about $11 billion of that in sales for Boeing.

The bill passed by the House on Wednesday extends the bank’s charter to September 2014 and raises the lending cap from $100 billion to $140 billion. The U.S. Senate could take it up next week.

For more on the issue, we have a segment on the latest edition of The Impact below.

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Week 1 of Session: Let’s Review

By | January 13, 2012 | 0 Comments

The 2012 Legislative session kicked off on Monday, and we covered lots of ground here on the blog and on Legislative Review, our 10-minute wrap-up of the day’s events that airs nightly at 6:30 p.m. on TVW. Here’s a quick look back at what happened this week.

Monday: Opening ceremonies got underway with speeches from Reps. Frank Chopp and Richard DeBolt. TVW aired a two-hour opening day special of “The Impact” with interviews from the Governor and dozens of lawmakers, who touched on everything from the budget to gay marriage and medical marijuana.

Watch Monday’s Legislative Review here.

Tuesday:  Gov. Chris Gregoire gave her final state of the state address, calling for a $3.6 billion transportation package that would include a $1.50 fee per barrel on oil produced in Washington. Sen. Joe Zarelli, R-Ridgefield, delivered the Republican response. That was followed by a news conference where several Republicans said they were concerned that the Governor’s proposed oil fee would cause prices to rise at the gas pump.

Watch Tuesday’s Legislative Review here.

Wednesday: After three years of delivering gloomy economic forecasts, the state’s chief economist Arun Raha announced he was resigning to take a new job in Cleveland — but not without cracking a few of his signature “Arun-ism” jokes first. We kept an eye on two environmental bills — one would ban plastic grocery bags in Washington state, and the other would ban petroleum-based plastic bottles. And, the Senate took a look at a proposal that would consolidate the healthcare benefits of K-12 public school employees under one insurance plan.

Watch Wednesday’s Legislative Review here.

Thursday: A bipartisan group of lawmakers held a press conference to announce their plans for education reform, including a bill that would authorize charter schools in Washington state. Rep. Joe Fitzgibbon, D-Burien, held a press conference to promote his version of a bill that would ban plastic bags. The employment department and chief economist Arun Raha gave an update on how the state’s economy is doing.

Watch Thursday’s Leglative Review here.

Friday: The Sandusky scandal prompted the Senate to hear a bill that would hold certain higher education employees responsible for reporting suspected child abuse. Also, the Senate honored Sen. Scott White, who died in October of a heart attack. Friday’s edition of Legislative Review airs at 6:30 p.m. on TVW.

Good news and bad on the state of the state’s economy

By | January 12, 2012 | 0 Comments

The Senate committee on economic development is looking at the state of the state’s economy today.

When it comes to unemployment, Washington is somewhere in the middle of the pack. The smallest states — North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, New Hampshire and Vermont — have the lowest unemployment, ranging from 3.4 percent to 4.5 percent. Washington’s unemployment, however, is about double that.

“The industries most affected by the recession are associated with housing, financial services, construction,” said Greg Weeks, director of the Employment Security Department. He said the pattern of the “tepid” recovery has been lead by a 15,000 job gain in manufacturing in the last year. Government, however, has been a drag — losing thousands of employees.  “The recession started and was hitting private industries first … and as they start to come out, then the tax ramifications of those cuts hit the public sector,” leading to job reductions in state and local governments.

State job recovery has been below par, Weeks said. “This recession has just hammered our state and we’re recovering slowly,” he said.

After Weeks was finished, Arun Raha, the state’s top economist — who announced that he’s leaving at the end of the month — presented. “What we said in the November forecast is coming true,” he said.

“If I had to make the forecast today … I would not anticipate having to make any significant up or down revisions” from the previous forecast, he said. (more…)

Categories: economy, WA Senate
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Chief economist Arun Raha will leave by Jan. 31

By | January 11, 2012 | 0 Comments

Washington’s chief economist Arun Raha announced today in a press conference that he is resigning Jan. 31 to take a new job in the private sector.

Since taking office three years ago amid the Great Recession, Raha’s quarterly economic forecast reports haven’t exactly been rosy. “It was a challenge and any job I have after this will be a piece of cake,” said Raha, who is taking a position as an economist for manufacturing firm Eaton Corporation in Cleveland, Ohio.

“Two good things come from me leaving. One, I’m getting an out-of-state company to buy my house, ” Raha joked. “The second is that we’ve been on target since September, and I get to quit while I’m ahead.”

Raha is executive director of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, and the announcement comes weeks before he is due to give the state’s February revenue forecast. As forecaster, Raha is responsible for predicting how much money the state will bring in, as well as painting a picture of the overall economy. The state Legislature uses his forecasts as a blueprint for writing the budget.

Rep. Ed Orcutt, Chair of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, said that Steve Lerch will take over as interim forecaster and will deliver the February forecast. Raha has promised to be available to Lerch so that the transition is “seamless” as possible, Orcutt said.

The council will launch a national search for Raha’s replacement, which could take as long as six or seven months, Orcutt said. In 2010, the most recent year for which data has been released, Raha earned $140,833 in salary.

Raha said that he feels comfortable leaving before February’s forecast because he doesn’t see much changing from his November projections. Revenue updates will be published today, he said, and the forecast is .03 percent off, or about $9 million dollars below projections. “I don’t see any reason to change it upward or downward from November,” Raha said, adding there is plenty of time for things to change before the February forecast.