This week (and after resolving a few technical glitches), we’ve got an Off the Set interview with proponents and opponents of Initiative 1100 — one of two liquor privatization measures. Initiative 1100 would close liquor stores and allow private businesses to import, distribute and sell liquor.

There’s much more to it. First, watch the Video Voters Guide here. Then read the entire initiative here, check out the financial impact here. Then, watch these videos with Ashley Bach and Jim Cooper.

Tags: Initiative 1100, liquor privatization

Arun Raha is presenting the Economic and Revenue Forecast now. Watch live on TVW.

He said the projection will be weaker. Update this page throughout the meeting for more updates.

“What is plaguing the economy is uncertainty,” he said. “What happened to the economy in May, June and July — when growth slowed to where it was barely noticeable — was one of those unknown unknowns,” he said, which makes “forecasters look bad.”

“We expect the economy to muddle along with modest growth. And though the risk of a double-dip has increased, we do not believe it will happen,” he said. “Nevertheless, we now expect the weaker economic outlook to reduce revenue collections by $770 million this biennium,” he said and a total of $1.39 billion through June 2013.

“Consumers are understandably hesitatn to spend,” he said. Household net worth dropped $18 trillion during the recession. Households have recovered $6 trillion of that — but there’s still a ways to go.

“We expect confidence to improve as the unemployment rate starts to drop,” he said. When will that be? Job growth is weaker than expected (though stronger than the national average), and government layoffs are offsetting private sector gains.

“The jobs recovery this time around has been slower than in any of the previous four recessions,” he said. “And if we compound that with the fact that the hole we’re in is also the toughest,” he said, then you have trouble. (more…)

Tags: Economic and Revenue Forecast

On The Impact tonight, host Jessica Gao talks to the state’s top economist, Arun Raha, about the economy. Raha says he still doesn’t think the state is headed for a “double dip” recession, but he does see the state’s economy lagging for the next several years.

Raha will deliver his quarterly Economic and Revenue Forecast tomorrow. Watch live on TVW at 10 a.m.

Jessica also talks to Marty Brown, Gov. Chris Gregoire’s budget director. Brown talked about negotiations with state labor unions — Gregoire wants state workers to chip in more for their health insurance coverage. Currently, state workers pay 12 percent and the state picks up 88 percent of the cost.

Watch all of that tonight — and much more — on The Impact. It airs at 7 and 10 p.m. on TVW.

Tags: Arun Raha, labor, Marty Brown, negotiations, The Impact

The unemployment rate in Washington is holding steady at 8.9 percent, according to the Employment Security Department.

That leaves more than 310,000 people in Washington unemployed and looking for work. More than 235,000 of those received unemployment benefits.

Health services, manufacturing, information, financial activities, hospitality and wholesale trade all added jobs in the month. Government, transportation, services, retail trade and construction, however, were all down. The full report is here.

Tags: unemployment

The Supreme Court started their fall docket today – kicking off the calendar with a case involving the Seattle Times. For the next two months, they’ll hear dozens of cases from around the state. Read more about those cases here.  

And, of course, you can watch: TVW covers every single Supreme Court session live on www.TVW.org – just click on live programming to watch.

Tags: supreme court

Gov. Chris Gregoire just held a press conference in her office to discuss her trade mission to Asia and the upcoming Economic and Revenue Forecast. Here are some notes and quotes:

On the Revenue Forecast:

- Gregoire signed an executive order today that dictates what across-the-board cuts should be made to correspond with a drop in the revenue forecast. She earlier called for agencies to ready for 4 to 7 percent cuts. Now, she said, she thinks it could be more dire.

- “I don’t see 10 percent, but I do think it’s above 7 percent,” she said. She also said there’s “no question in my mind” that the news on Thursday will be bad.

- A 1 percent cut is equal to $82 million, she said.

- “Assuming we’re going to see some better (economic) trends, I don’t expect it this year.”

- Podiatry, hospice care: “Some of these programs are going to be gone this year.” (more…)

Tags: Asia trade mission, Budget, cuts, economy, Gregoire, recession

This morning, Gov. Chris Gregoire will hold a GMAP forum on transportation, where Transportation Secretary Paula Hammond will face questions.

GMAP sessions are meant to ensure accountability in state government by measuring performance — publicly. See the full schedule and read more about it here. Today’s transportation forum will start at 8:30 a.m. and last one hour, and you can watch the whole thing live on TVW’s webcast here.

Tags: GMAP, Gov. Gregoire, transportation

Dr. Arun Raha, the state’s chief economic forecaster, is delivering the quarterly state economic review now. Watch live on TVW or keep up here.

“Since our last forecast, the economic recovery has slowed to an agonizing crawl,” he said. He said the risk of a double dip recession has increased, but he still doesn’t believe it will happen.

He said the equity market is weak, which could foretell economic weakness to come. Ditto for bond markets. “I do not believe, though, that we are at risk for getting into a Japan-like economic spiral,” he said. The two economies are different and the Fed acted more quickly, among other factors.

Raha said GDP growth in the second quarter was revised to 1.6 percent.

He said private sector job growth in Washington is similar to national averages, but that state and local jobs have dropped off. Consumer confidence is still down, he said, but they expect it to improve as unemployment rates drop.

“Just before the recession, household revolving debt was growing at an annualized 10 percent per month. Now it is shrinking at approximately the same rate.” What’s that mean? Pre-recession, people were accumulating more debt than they could pay off. Now, they’re cutting back.

“Corporate profits are back up to pre-recession levels,” he said — a bit of good news. “Even a small increase in demand could translate to jobs,” he said, because productivity gains are slowing. That means increased demand would lead to more workers needed.

Other good news: The asset quality of Washington’s regional banks is improving.

Bad news: Housing data is disappointing. “Single family permits are now down,” he said, and previous gains were “clearly due” to the tax credits offered by the federal government. He said housing construction won’t reach pre-recession levels anytime in the state’s six-year forecast window.

He said home remodels are expected to increase this year and into 2011, which is good news for the out-of-work construction workers. He said today’s remodelers are more frugal and aim to make a low-quality house sellable.

Outlook for aerospace is similar to June’s forecast: Sustained but moderate gains, he said, beginning next year. Ditto for software: “We expect modest software employment growth through 2011,” and picking up in 2012. Those two industries make up a substantial chunk of the state’s economy, he said, and 5 percent of the workforce.

“In conclusion, I wish I had better news to give you but I don’t.”

Tags: economic review, Raha

Here’s a special video Q&A on Initiative 1082 — with Amy Brackenberry, who is in favor of the initiative, and Rep. Brendan Williams, who is against it. This is the first of many such video Q&As about initiatives that I’ll be posting in the coming days — so stay tuned.

First: To get acquainted with 1082, which would allow private companies to offer workers’ compensation insurance, here are a few sites:
Here is the text of Initiative 1082.
And here’s where you can find the financial impact and more.

First, the pro-1082 Q&A with Brackenberry:

Next, the anti-1082 interview with Williams:

Tags: initiative 1082, Q&A, video voter guide

The state of Washington, City of Seattle, and more than 30 other employers will receive federal funds to help provide healthcare options for retired workers not yet eligible for Medicare.

What’s that mean for the state? About $60 million in savings over two years, according to the Health Care Authority.

From Healthcare.gov: “Businesses, other employers, and unions that are accepted into the program will receive reimbursement for medical claims for early retirees and their spouses, surviving spouses, and dependents. Savings can be used to reduce employer health care costs, provide premium relief to workers and families, or both. Applicants who are approved into the program receive reinsurance for the claims of high-cost retirees and their families (80 percent of the costs from $15,000 to $90,000).”

The program will end in 2014, when state health insurance exchanges are created through the federal healthcare reform.

Tags: healthcare reform