Governor Chris Gregoire just signed an agreement allowing the state Employment Security Department to comply with the federal stimulus package. What’s that mean: Come May 3, expect $25 more per weekly unemployment check. That’s on top of the $45 per week the state is providing.

The order goes into effect on Sunday. But, because the software at ESD will take a long time to sort through things, no one will receive a bump in their checks until May.

The good news: In May, you’ll get a check with the lump sum of the benefits you missed. Between February 22 and May 3, there are 10 weeks. That means sometime in early May — if you qualify — you’ll get a check for $250.

After that, the extra $25 will be incorporated into your regular check.

So, the minimum benefit will go from $129 per week (now) to $155 (new base rate) + $45 (from state) + $25 (from federal government) = $225.

The maximum weekly benefit will be $611 per week, up from $541.

The state also found out this week that the federal government will pay for the 13-week emergency extension of benefits. While that may not matter to those receiving unemployment, it could be good news for employers wishing for a lower unemployment tax rate. (more…)

More economists have signed on to a letter sent yesterday to leadership in the House, Senate and the Governor. The message: Raise taxes, please.

“Drawing upon economic theory, we believe reducing government spending will have a more deleterious effect on Washington State’s economy than would increasing revenue,” the letter says.

“The best strategy is to continue our long-term investments in education, health care, community vitality, and economic security.”

The letter was initially signed by 22 economists — many professors at universities and colleges across the state. This morning, six more signed on.

Here’s the full letter.

Tags: Budget

Sen. Rodney Tom and Rep. Gary Alexander are in the studio with Austin Jenkins of Inside Olympia now. They’re talking about the projected $8.3 billion shorftall.

“At some point, the cuts get too deep and too hard,” Tom said. He said if you go too far, you start trashing infrastructure.

“I don’t think that’s responsible at all” to ask the public to raise taxes, Alexander said. He said cuts need to be made for government to be responsible.

Watch the rest of the lively interview in 40 short minutes on Inside Olympia. It airs at 7 and 10 p.m., then anytime online.

Tags: Budget

Dr. Arun Raha, executive director of the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, is being interviewed by Inside Olympia host Austin Jenkins now. He told Austin that the economy right now is unprecedented.

Their software can’t even predict what will happen with all the factors going on: Housing and car sales are down, consumer confidence is at a record low and credit is tight.

“It’s definitely nowhere close to the Great Depression, but it is still and probably the longest recession we’ll have since the Great Depression.”

Watch the entire interview tonight on Inside Olympia, which airs at 7 and 10 p.m. on TVW.

Tags: Revenue forecast

Victore Moore says it’s not quite $8.3 billion because “We just signed a budget that actually made some cuts already.”

Zarelli: “I’m going to put this into context with a different perspective… If government decided that we were going to freeze the spending of government at that June 30, 2009 level … we would have about a $1.2 billion” deficit. He said $8.3 or $7.2 is the “Olympia number.”

Moore said that unless we passed laws barring any more criminals from entering jail, any more children from entering school or any more Medicaid patients from enrolling, it’s not possible to just “freeze spending.”

With that, the meeting is over. The crowd is filing out as everyone is chatting about their reactions.

Confused? Want more information? Tune into Inside Olympia at 7 and 10 p.m. tonight. Host Austin Jenkins will have Dr. Arun Raha on the show for more information.

Can you cut $8.3 billion from the budget?

Hunter: “We’re going to do that exercise.”

That’s $8.3 billion from a $33 billion biennial budget, of which about half is for programs that cannot be cut — like debt services (not really a program), education and federal pass-through money. So, about half of the state budget (that’s on the table).

Hunter: “To give you some context, $2.3 billion that our forecast is down today is larger than our total contribution to all six of our four-year institutions, which is about $1.8 billion … one way we could respond to this is just by eliminating those programs. Now, I’m not suggesting that that’s our response, but it gives you some idea” of the magnitude of the shortfall.

Moore: Also thinks today helps to have a more realistic debate about the federal stimulus package … knowing this now, I think, makes the budget deliberations a little more useful.”

Sen. Joe Zarrelli: “Whatever the March forecast is, we have to cut about $600 million from this biennium … regardless of what the March forecast will be.”

Rep. Ed Orcutt: “Sen. Zarrelli is absolutely right. We cannot wait. And I think that’s one of the things that this revenue update tells us … the talk that we’re starting to hear about tax increases? I just don’t think that we should be throwing in the towel and asking the taxpayer for a bailout.”

Rep. Ross Hunter: “Message would be the same as it was before. We have work to do in (writing) the budget… it’s premature to make any decisions on any direction that we have.”

“I don’t think thsi has changed a lot from what our internal expectations were,” Hunter said.

Does it change anything for the governor? Victor Moore says no.

“First, the governor signed the budget yesterday. She knows that it was a belt-tightening bill… I’m not sure how this Legislature could write a budget based on this information,” Moore said.

Austin Jenkins asked: Then what’s the purpose of a preliminary forecast?

Hunter: “The more information we have about where we are, the easier it is for us to move forward.”

- One more month of financial data
- More details on the plan to bailout toxic assets
- Missed the last one. Go to tvw.org to watch live.

- “The federal stimulus is in this forecast.” He said they expect, peak-to-trough, 90,000 jobs to be lost. Without the stimulus, he expected 160,000.

- Rep. Ross Hunter: “About three weeks ago, we looked at the forecast … and it was pretty clear that we were not on track” to meet the forecast. He recommended that they use the pessimistic forecast, and they did. “We’re continuing though with that exercise.”

Raha said he expects the difference between consumer earning and spending to widen this year. “Consumers will hunker down,” he said, and stop spending because they fear for what will come.

Forecast by fiscal year: 8.3 percent decline in 2009, 3.6 percent growth in 2010, and 8.1 percent growth in 2011. That means we won’t get back to levels seen before the recession until 2011.

“Everything we feared could go wrong did,” he said. But, he said, “Sometimes we get unexpected good surprises. Did I mention that Ken Griffey Jr. might come back.”